June 23, 2012

Daddy’s Home

Interesting article on interest rates and inflation. 

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Daddy's Home

Daddy's Home
Where's All That Money Going?
Leading Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve
What About Retiree Final Consumer Demand?
Hard and Soft Options
Some Thoughts From Madrid
Trequanda, Cincinnati, New York, and Singapore

I have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.

But first, and quickly, most of you are aware of my annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-sponsored with my partner, Altegris, which we held last month. This year's David Rosenberg (and many attendees!) said this was the best conference ever, featuring a lineup of world-class economic and financial leaders. Our very enthusiastic attendees created a room full of energy that the speakers seemed to feed off of, and everyone brought their "A" game. It really was quite special. And now we have the videos.

For those of you who are members of my special program for accredited investors, called the Mauldin Circle, you can access the conference videos by going to the "My Information" section at the bottom of your personal home page, when you log intowww.altegris.com. I can't think of a better way to sharpen your investment outlook than to partake of some of the best minds in the world, including Dr. Lacy Hunt, Niall Ferguson, David Rosenberg, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian … and even your humble analyst.

In order to view the videos, you must be a member of the Mauldin Circle. This program has replaced our Accredited Investor Newsletter Program. My partner Altegris and I have worked hard to enhance the program, which now includes access to webinars, conferences, special events, videos, accredited newsletters, and presentations featuring alternative investment managers and other thought leaders and influencers.

The good news is that this program is completely free. The only restriction is that, because of securities regulations, you have to register and be vetted by one of my trusted partners, which in the United States is Altegris, before you can be added to the subscriber roster. This will be a quite painless process (I promise). Once you register, an Altegris representative will call you to provide access to the videos, presentations, and summaries from selected speakers featured at our 2012 Strategic Investment ...

William Bayne

Article: The death of banks – and the future of money

Interesting article. Long, but fascinating. 
The death of banks – and the future of money

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William Bayne

June 22, 2012

Moody's Downgrades Global Banks

What does this mean? Is this a real downgrade or an option to help banks try to find yield in the derivative markets?


Sent to you by Billy via Google Reader:


via Wall Street Journal on 6/22/12

Moody's dealt a fresh blow to the financial sector, downgrading more than a dozen global banks to reflect declining profitability.


Things you can do from here:


June 21, 2012

The US is turning Japanese ? ? ?

Good general lay of the land article. 

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The US is turning Japanese ? ? ?

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In This Issue.

* Turning Japanese ????

* Mike Meyer vs. WSJ - who is right?

* New Zealand keeps rates unchanged

* Dimon gets grilled on Capitol Hill

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

The US is turning Japanese ? ? ?

Good day. I returned home late last night after a quick trip down to Tampa. The trip was great, and I got to 'spread the gospel' of diversification to a couple groups of current and potential EverBankers. I took advantage of the plane rides to catch up on some overdue reading, some of which gave me some good pfodder for today's Pfennig. The papers and magazines I picked up at the airport were full of stories about the Eurozone breakup which I expected, but there were also a number of stories regarding what has been termed the 'fiscal cliff' which we are moving toward here in the US. The editors seem to be having as difficult a time as investors figuring out on which side of the pond to focus their attention.

The dollar traded off through most of the day as investors are increasing their bets the Fed will discuss another round of quantitative easing during their FOMC meeting next week. The chances of another round of stimulus increased after data released yesterday showed Producer Prices fell 1% during May on a month to month basis and increased just .7% on a YOY basis. Other data showed retail sales increased less than predicted, and actually fell when autos and gas were taken out of the figure.

Today we will get the CPI data for May and the numbers are expected to mirror yesterday's PPI data. Consumer Prices are expected to have fallen .2% during May when compared to April. It is Thursday, so we will also see the weekly jobs numbers probably won't show any improvement over last week's 377k increase in jobless claims.

This data reflects an ...

Thanks Billy Bayne

Former Google CEO Issues Dire Warning About China

Concerning article. The double edge of globalization. Guns and butter can be so complicated.  Former Google CEO Issues Dire Warning About Ch...