October 05, 2008

Crazy Economy

Well General Conference just got over and we just got done playing with the kids outside and I'm contemplating my investing objectives and I continue to feel pretty bleak on the market. I don't feel in my normal doom and gloom mood, probably because of conference and the kids, but I just don't see anything worth investing in. I would love to go long the EUR/USD but with European countries and banks starting their downturn that is not wise. I don't feel good about betting on the dollar since we are surely going to see some inflation with pumping 700 billion dollars into the market, and gold does nothing for me.

It probably wouldn't be a terrible time to put a little money in an S&P index fund since it is so far off its highs. I may want to test the theory that the market does its best from January till May. Maybe in January I will throw some into a nice index fund, pull it in May and head into currencies over the summer.

Unfortunately I don't see the economy recovering anytime soon. Too many problems, too much leverage. It is going to take banks a while to de-leverage and it is going to be somewhat painful to main street. In addition it is hard to want to be in the markets during this presidential election as it has a weird effect on things. You don't seem to get "normal market reactions". That word normal is very relative but I'm sure you get my drift.

Hope everyone is doing well and the market is treating them well. Hopefully you are in cash waiting to get back in. If you are in, hopefully you are younger and can wait out a prolonged recovery. If you are older, you are likely going to have to be a bit more aggressive in the future, once things have calmed down, to try and recoup your losses. Good luck!!

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